Is the Free World Already at War with Russia? – NEIL BARNETT: We're already at war with Russia
I have pasted Neil Barnett's Daily Mail article below this one.
Excerpts:
Neil Barnett’s assertion that we are already at war with Russia is a sobering wake-up call. This is not a war fought with traditional means, but it is no less dangerous. Russia’s strategy of hybrid warfare has allowed it to weaken its adversaries from within, attacking the very institutions that define Western democracies.
The West must recognise the reality of this conflict and respond accordingly, or risk being continually undermined by a rival that is playing by an entirely different set of rules.
The first step in combating this threat is acknowledging its existence. Only by understanding the nature of Russia’s tactics can the West hope to defend itself and preserve the values and institutions that have defined it for generations. The time to wake up is now.
Again: Recognize the enemy's strategy (in this case its political warfare strategy), Understand the strategy. EXPOSE the strategy (to inoculate the American people against it) and then attack the strategy with a superior political warfare strategy to defeat it. Recognize. Understand . EXPOSE. Attack.
Is the Free World Already at War with Russia? –
eutoday.net · by gary cartwright · October 24, 2024
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In the wake of global political shifts, economic turmoil, and the rise of hybrid warfare, it is becoming increasingly clear that the free world – the West in particular – is in a state of conflict with Russia, according to expert Neil Barnett, writing in the Daily Mail.
However, the nature of this war is so unconventional that many haven’t yet fully grasped the reality of it. The battlefields are not defined by soldiers clashing in open fields, but rather by cyberattacks, misinformation campaigns, energy dependency, and geopolitical chess games that stretch across borders.
This isn’t a new revelation. For years, experts like Neil Barnett have argued that the West, particularly Europe and the United States, are engaged in an undeclared war with Russia—a conflict that has unfolded through covert operations, political subversion, and strategic alliances.
The title of Barnett’s piece, “We’re already at war with Russia… we just haven’t woken up to it yet,” captures the essence of this slow realisation.
The Shadow War
What Barnett and many other geopolitical commentators are referring to is often called “hybrid warfare,” a concept that Russia has mastered under the leadership of President Vladimir Putin.
Unlike conventional warfare, hybrid warfare blends military force with non-military tactics, including cyberattacks, economic warfare, and information manipulation. These methods allow Russia to exert influence and destabilise adversaries without officially declaring war.
One clear example of Russia’s hybrid warfare is its involvement in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.
U.S. intelligence agencies have confirmed that Russian operatives were behind a sophisticated misinformation campaign aimed at manipulating public opinion and sowing division among Americans. Social media platforms were flooded with false information, polarising topics, and fake accounts, all designed to erode trust in the democratic process.
This tactic wasn’t new; it was an extension of Russia’s decades-long use of “active measures,” a Soviet-era strategy to influence the politics of rival nations without engaging in direct combat.
In Europe, similar tactics have been deployed. Russia has been accused of backing extremist political parties, stoking tensions in countries such as Hungary, France, and Germany. Its cyberattacks on critical infrastructure in Ukraine, as well as interference in elections across Europe, have furthered the notion that Russia is waging an unconventional war against the West.
Energy as a Weapon
Another front in this war is energy. Russia’s vast reserves of natural gas and oil give it enormous power over Europe, which relies heavily on these resources for heating and electricity.
The Nord Stream pipelines, which carry gas from Russia to Germany, have been at the centre of this geopolitical struggle. By controlling the flow of energy, Russia can manipulate the economies of European nations and punish those that oppose its political agenda.
In the winter of 2009, for example, Russia cut off gas supplies to Ukraine in the midst of a pricing dispute, leaving much of Eastern Europe in the cold.
It was a stark reminder of the Kremlin’s willingness to use energy as a geopolitical weapon. As tensions between Russia and the West continue to escalate, concerns about energy security have only grown.
The invasion of Ukraine in 2022 intensified these concerns, with Europe scrambling to reduce its dependency on Russian energy supplies in response to Moscow’s aggression.
The Importance of Cyberwarfare
Perhaps the most underappreciated aspect of Russia’s strategy is its use of cyberwarfare. As Barnett suggests, Russia is engaged in constant cyberattacks against Western nations, attacking financial institutions, government systems, and critical infrastructure.
In 2020, Russia was accused of orchestrating the SolarWinds hack, a massive cyber espionage campaign that targeted U.S. federal agencies and major corporations. The hack was one of the most significant cyberattacks in history, compromising sensitive data and raising alarms about the vulnerability of Western cyber defences.
Cyberattacks have the unique advantage of being difficult to attribute and often operate in the shadows, making retaliation more complex. By attacking through digital means, Russia can inflict significant damage on its adversaries without risking direct military confrontation. This form of warfare blurs the lines between peace and war, creating a murky battlefield where both sides are constantly on edge but reluctant to escalate to open conflict.
Western Naivety
A central theme of Barnett’s argument is the West’s failure to fully acknowledge the extent of this conflict. Western nations, particularly in Europe, have been slow to respond to Russia’s aggression, often underestimating the threat posed by hybrid warfare.
Part of this reluctance comes from a desire to maintain economic and political stability, especially in regions that are heavily dependent on Russian energy or have significant trade relationships with the Kremlin.
However, as Barnett points out, this complacency has only emboldened Russia. By not recognising the true nature of the conflict, the West has allowed Russia to operate in a grey zone, where it can continue its campaigns of disinformation, cyberattacks, and political manipulation without facing significant consequences.
The lack of a coordinated and robust response has left Western democracies vulnerable, allowing Russia to expand its influence and undermine the political and economic foundations of its rivals.
Waking Up to Reality
Neil Barnett’s assertion that we are already at war with Russia is a sobering wake-up call. This is not a war fought with traditional means, but it is no less dangerous. Russia’s strategy of hybrid warfare has allowed it to weaken its adversaries from within, attacking the very institutions that define Western democracies.
The West must recognise the reality of this conflict and respond accordingly, or risk being continually undermined by a rival that is playing by an entirely different set of rules.
The first step in combating this threat is acknowledging its existence. Only by understanding the nature of Russia’s tactics can the West hope to defend itself and preserve the values and institutions that have defined it for generations. The time to wake up is now.
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eutoday.net · by gary cartwright · October 24, 2024
NEIL BARNETT: We're already at war with Russia
Daily Mail · by Neil Barnett For The Daily Mail · October 23, 2024
We're at war with Russia – we just haven't woken up to it yet.
Enraged by the West's support for Ukraine in its struggle against Moscow's invasion, the Kremlin has embarked on a campaign of sabotage and disruption against Kyiv's European allies. And that includes us.
Only last week it emerged that a fire at a Birmingham warehouse in July is believed to have been caused by an incendiary device planted by Russian spies.
This revelation came just days after the head of MI5, Ken McCullum, warned that Russia's intelligence agency has been on a mission to generate 'sustained mayhem on British and European streets'.
Delivering his annual update on security threats faced by the UK, Mr McCallum said GRU agents had carried out 'arson, sabotage and more dangerous actions conducted with increasing recklessness' in Britain.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin is using its extensive repertoire of dirty tricks to further its imperial ambitions in eastern Europe by interfering in this month's elections in Moldova and Georgia, and calling on its allies to help out in Ukraine.
You might think that our Government would respond to Putin's increasingly bellicose actions with some sabre-rattling of its own. Far from it.
The Kremlin is using its repertoire of dirty tricks to further its imperial ambitions in eastern Europe by interfering in elections. Pictured, Vladmir Putin and long-time ally Dmitry Medvedev
The UK is spending the same proportion of its national income on defence as it was in the early 1930s, while the Army is smaller than it has been at any time in the last 200 years.
With the Budget coming up on October 30, the Government should declare defence its number-one priority and drastically ramp up spending on security.
But we have not heard anything from the Chancellor Rachel Reeves to indicate that she will do such a thing.
While Russia wouldn't be foolish enough to mount a military assault on Britain, or so naive as to think a nuclear strike would lead to anything but mutual destruction, it is quite prepared to carry out undercover operations on British soil.
And we have never been more vulnerable.
At the turn of the millennium, MI5 spent 20 per cent of its budget tackling what is known as 'hostile state activity' by countries such as Russia.
By 2009 that number was a miserly 3 per cent, as resources were diverted to fighting the so-called 'war on terror' against the Islamist threat.
Today it is likely to have returned to 20 per cent or more but the Security Service is still desperately trying to make up for lost time.
So just what are the myriad ways Russia is waging its hybrid war on Britain and our European allies – and what does the Kremlin hope to gain from such a prolonged proxy campaign?
One of Russia's most effective and dangerous assets is their network of sleeper agents around the world. These are Russian intelligence operatives deeply embedded in foreign countries, living under false identities.
Without a doubt, there are Russian sleeper agents – known as 'illegals' within the intelligence network – working in the UK, possibly in universities, laboratories and Government institutions.
A 2018 study by security think-tank the Henry Jackson Society, entitled 'Putin Sees and Hears it All: How Russia's Intelligence Agencies Menace the UK', claimed that the Russian dictator had bolstered the number of Russian spies operating in the UK five-fold over the previous eight years.
Russian sleeper agent Mikhail Valeryevich Mikushin, who posed as Brazilian academic José Assis Giammaria at the University of Tromso in Norway
At the time, the report's author Dr Andrew Foxall said 'Russia has as many as 200 case officers in the UK, handling upwards of 500 agents'.
(It's worth pointing out that, as the headcount at the Russian Embassy has been greatly reduced since 2022, the number of intelligence officers will have fallen too.)
Exactly two years ago, in October 2022, there was a rare arrest of an illegal in Norway.
José Assis Giammaria, apparently a Brazilian academic at the University of Tromso, was unmasked as a Russian called Mikhail Valeryevich Mikushin.
One of the projects he was working on involved collaborating with the Norwegian government on security threats in 'Arctic Norway', primarily from Russia.
Illegals are typically engaged in espionage but some are also trained for sabotage and assassination.
As we saw with the murder of British citizen Alexander Litvinenko in 2006 and the more recent Salisbury poisonings in 2018, Russia is not afraid to commit murder on British territory.
And there have been attempts in Europe, too. In July it was reported that US intelligence had foiled a Russian plot to assassinate Armin Papperger, the chief executive of the German arms maker Rheinmetall, who was producing artillery shells and military vehicles for Ukraine.
A number of the most serious crimes perpetrated on foreign soil have been carried out by Russia's infamous GRU Unit 29155. It is believed to have been responsible for the poisoning of Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Salisbury, an attempted coup in Montenegro in 2016, cyber attacks against British institutions and a major explosion at a Czech munitions depot in 2014.
Russia's infamous GRU Unit 29155 is believed to have been responsible for the 2018 poisoning of Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia, both pictured, in Salisbury
The poising of UK citizen Alexander Litvinenko, pictured shortly before his death in 2006, shows Russia is not afraid to commit murder on British territory
However, due to the advent of biometric passports, it is increasingly difficult to move fresh Russian operatives into the UK, which is why Russia has a new trick: hiring mercenaries from third countries to operate on their behalf. Six Bulgarian nationals – who as EU citizens have the right to free movement within the bloc – are currently awaiting trial in the UK accused of spying for Russia, for example.
One of the GRU's targets is believed to have been a warehouse in east London belonging to a company linked to Ukraine which caught fire in March as a result of a suspected arson attack. Seven men have been charged in connection with the incident.
But perhaps the greatest potential threat posed by Russia's shadow war is an attack on Europe's undersea cables.
These fibre-optic cables are responsible for transmitting the vast majority of modern-day digital communications, as well as an estimated $10trillion (£7.7trillion) in daily financial transactions.
In 2023 Putin's long-term ally, former Russian president and prime minister Dmitry Medvedev, announced that there was no longer anything 'to prevent us from destroying the ocean floor cable communications of our enemies'.
So great is the perceived threat to this undersea network that earlier this year six countries – including the UK and Germany – signed an agreement on further cooperation to protect infrastructure under the North Sea.
But not all of Moscow's targets are physical. Democracy, tolerance and the rule of law pose a far greater threat to Putin's dictatorship than guns or missiles.
Ahead of Sunday's presidential election in Europe's poorest country, Moldova, there were reports it was being plagued by Russian sabotage.
Sure enough, its pro-Western incumbent Maia Sandu blamed an 'unprecedented assault on our country's freedom and democracy' by 'foreign forces' as the results came in.
In July it was reported that the US had foiled a Russian plot to assassinate Armin Papperger, boss of the German arms maker Rheinmetall, who was producing artillery shells for Ukraine
She failed to win an outright majority and now faces a run-off vote for the presidency on November 3, while a pivotal referendum on EU membership held the same day resulted in a victory by the slimmest of margins.
It is alleged that Russia spent hundreds of millions of dollars buying votes in Moldova, while also supporting the campaigns of pro-Kremlin candidates and even producing AI-generated deepfake videos that slandered their opponents.
Kremlin tries to discredit Moldova's referendum to join EU amid pro-West result
The fear now is that Moldova was a testing ground for Russian tactics and similar attempts will be made to sabotage other elections across the continent, including Saturday's poll in Georgia.
But no country is under greater threat than Ukraine. Russia's allies are becoming increasingly involved in the conflict, either by supplying munitions or cannon fodder.
The Kremlin is already understood to have deployed Chinese and Iranian drones in its offensive and, earlier this month, Ukraine's president Volodomyr Zelensky claimed that North Korea is preparing to send 10,000 troops to fight alongside Russians on the frontline.
Perhaps the biggest question now is: Why? From the annexation of Crimea to the invasion of Ukraine and now a hybrid war against the whole of Europe – what does the Kremlin really hope to achieve?
Russia talks about its fear of being encircled by Nato. But I don't believe this is their true concern. Moscow is more worried about the Russian masses being led astray by Western liberal ideas.
And every act of sabotage on British soil must be viewed as an attempt to divide and disorientate the British public and the institutions we believe in. Putin must never be allowed to succeed.
- Neil Barnett is the co-author of Russia's Hybrid War Against the UK: Time to Fight Back Against the Kremlin, published by the Henry Jackson Society
Daily Mail · by Neil Barnett For The Daily Mail · October 23, 2024
