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Observed and expected future global climate changes

Changes in the global climate system have increased rapidly since 1950 and are unprecedented compared to previous millennia. Undoubtedly, human influence has led to significant warming of the atmosphere, oceans and land areas. Continued greenhouse gas emissions will continue to cause major climate changes and further extreme events in the future.

Current status of climate research

Based on significantly improved knowledge of climate processes, better (paleoclimatic) evidence of the climate conditions of past epochs on earth and the reaction of the climate system to the increasing radiative forcing of the sun, human-caused "climate change" is clearly detectable and is already affecting a wide range of "weather" conditions. and climate extremes in all regions of the world.

This human influence on the Earth's climate (anthropogenic climate change) and the associated widespread changes are reflected in the rapid warming of the lower atmosphere and the oceans, in the changes to the global water cycle, in the worldwide decrease in snow and ice, in the increase the mean global sea level and changing seasons. In addition, there are now even more observed changes in weather extremes such as heat waves, heavy rainfall, floods, droughts and tropical cyclones and, in particular, even more clear evidence of their attribution to human influence.

Monthly Average Mauna Loa CO2

September 2024:     422.03 ppm
September 2023:     418.51 ppm
Last updated: Oct 05, 2024 https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/

NOTE: Due to the eruption of the Mauna Loa Volcano, measurements from Mauna Loa Observatory were suspended as of Nov. 29, 2022. Observations from December 2022 to July 4, 2023 are from a site at the Maunakea Observatories, approximately 21 miles north of the Mauna Loa Observatory. Mauna Loa observations resumed in July 2023.

The greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere have continued to rise over the last 10 years and in 2023 have annual average values of 419 ppm for carbon dioxide (CO2), 1,940 ppb for methane (CH4) and 336.8 ppb for nitrous oxide (N2O ) reached. The mean global decadal surface temperature rose by more than 1.3 °C between 1880 and 2023 (see Fig. “Human influence has warmed the climate to a degree not seen in at least 2,000 years was”). In the northern hemisphere, the last decade was the warmest in more than 125,000 years.

Human Influence On The Earth's Climate

Human Influence On The Earth's Climate

Expected global climate changes

The warming of the surface air layer will continue until the end of the 21st century. All greenhouse gas emission scenarios used result in an increase in temperature by the end of the 21st century. Depending on the scenario, average warming can range from 1.5 to 5.7 °C compared to pre-industrial conditions (reference period: 1850-1900). Only under the condition of very ambitious climate protection measures and drastic reductions in CO2 and other "greenhouse gas" emissions could the average temperature increase by 2100 be limited to 1.5 °C to 2.4 °C compared to the pre-industrial period.

The AR6 partial reports

WG I – Natural scientific foundations of climate change

The report of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change comes to the clear conclusion that human-caused (anthropogenic) greenhouse gas emissions are clearly the cause of the current and further warming of the Earth's climate system. The numerous “consequences of global warming” – including extreme events – are becoming increasingly obvious and can be directly attributed to the anthropogenic “greenhouse effect”. The effects of global climate change have therefore become more intense and frequent and will continue to do so in the coming decades. The increase in global mean surface temperature compared to pre-industrial levels is likely to reach 1.5°C in the early 2030s.

WG II – Consequences of climate change, adaptation and vulnerability

The second part of the report focuses on the consequences of climate change and “adaptation to climate change”. The IPCC warns: Climate risks for ecosystems and people are increasing rapidly worldwide. Only consistent climate protection and early climate adaptation can reduce risks. The partial report describes the effects of the climate crisis very clearly. Massive consequences for ecosystems and people are already visible in all regions of the world and global CO₂ emissions continue to rise. The effects of the climate crisis will still have a noticeable impact on people and ecosystems even if we manage to decisively change course and limit global warming to 1.5 °C.

WG III – Mitigation of climate change

Probably the most important message of the third part of the report is that it would still be technologically and economically possible to limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2100 in accordance with the Paris Agreement. However, this requires an immediate global trend reversal as well as profound greenhouse gas reductions in all regions of the world and all sectors (i.e. in energy systems, cities, agriculture and forestry, land use, buildings, transport and industry). Immediate climate protection measures would only slightly reduce global economic growth – compared to a purely hypothetical development that does not include climate change at all. Compared to the expected economic crises and recessions if warming exceeds 1.8 °C, immediate climate protection measures also represent an extremely worthwhile investment from an economic point of view. For the first time, energy and emissions-saving behavior in companies and in everyday life was also the focus of the partial report. Improved global framework conditions such as political and regulatory instruments, international cooperation, market instruments (e.g. CO₂ pricing), investments, innovations, technology transfer, development of know-how and climate-friendly lifestyles offer opportunities for the necessary system transformations in line with sustainable development and global justice to design. Poverty reduction and a secure energy supply could be achieved without significant increases in emissions. The most important options lie in the use of solar energy and wind power as well as in the mobility, building and food sectors (especially less meat consumption), but also particularly in the protection and improvement of the effectiveness of ecosystems (especially global forests and... Moore).

Here we have summarized the key statements of the third part of the report for you.

https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/minderung-des-klimawandels-was-notwendig-moeglich#undefined

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Mitigating Climate Change – What is Necessary and Possible

The third part of the 6th IPCC assessment report assessed the progress in limiting global greenhouse gas emissions and the range of reduction and action options in all sectors. Without rapid political implementation, the global temperature target of 1.5°C by 2100 is no longer achievable. Ambitious climate protection is also the prerequisite for successful climate adaptation.

Here we have summarized the key statements of the third part of the report for you.

https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/minderung-des-klimawandels-was-notwendig-moeglich#undefined

and it's translation

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More foreign victims of human trafficking in home prostitution

<h6>Simple, uncomfortable room used for prostitution</h6>

Simple, uncomfortable room used for prostitution

Victims of human trafficking and sexual exploitation were reported more often in the Netherlands last year. This includes a striking number of people from South America and Africa who worked in home prostitution, according to figures from the National Rapporteur on Human Trafficking.

In African and South American countries where things are not going well, such as Venezuela and Colombia, people are leaving. This makes them vulnerable to falling prey to human trafficking, says Conny Rijken, National Rapporteur on Human Trafficking and Sexual Violence against Children.

Victims are recruited in their own country or in the Netherlands or Spain, where they often go to work. "They sometimes know that they are going to do sex work, but not under what circumstances," says Rijken.

These circumstances are harsh in the Netherlands, says the rapporteur. Victims, who often stay here illegally because their visas have expired, are put in a place where they cannot leave. The human trafficker arranges the sex advertisements, the appointments and the payments and "in the best case, the proceeds are shared, but we see much more often that the money ends up in the human trafficker's pocket." Victims keep being moved

Most victims of sexual exploitation who were reported were in home prostitution and escort prostitution. In 2023, there were 178 reports of African victims of sexual exploitation, versus 119 cases in 2022. Last year, 68 Latin American victims were reported, compared to 26 the year before.

The rapporteur refers to the crises in Venezuela in particular. The consequences of this are "well felt and visible in the Caribbean Netherlands and other countries within the Kingdom".

What makes it complicated, according to rapporteur Rijken, is that there is little insight into home prostitution. "It is easy for human traffickers to isolate someone. Moreover, the victims are constantly being moved, making it more difficult for authorities to get in touch with them and stay in touch. As soon as they are in the picture, they have been moved again," says Rijken . "This happens throughout the Netherlands, but sometimes also to other countries."

Small part in view

In 2023, there were 868 reports of human trafficking. That is 54 more than the year before. According to the rapporteur, there are many more victims. "We know that there are about five thousand victims per year, so we only have a picture of a small part," says Rijken. "It is very important that we get as many images as possible so that we can get them out of their situation."

The majority of registered victims are women, also in recent years. Women are mainly victims of sexual exploitation, men are more likely to experience labor exploitation. They are not paid for their work, work too long hours or do dangerous work. "We mainly see this in the construction and transport sectors."

In 2023, 52 minors were registered as victims of human trafficking. That is a decrease compared to the year before.

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Air strikes on Ukrainian civilians

Hunting people with drones

KaffeeMitMilch

The Sumy region's senior explosives technician, Ihor Chernyak, with a Russian drone   Photo: Anna Klochko

17.10.2024 14:25
Author: Anna Klochko

In the northern Ukrainian region of Sumy on the border with Russia, civilians are exposed to daily shelling. Fires often cannot be put out.

Sumy taz | “As soon as it gets dark, the artillery fire increases, more bombs fall and almost invisible drones dominate the village. These kamikaze drones hunt us during the day and attack our homes at night. I'm afraid of being alone in the basement. That's why I slept in the windowless bathroom for months - it's a bit safer than in the bedroom. Nobody in the village sleeps in their bed anymore. We all sleep in clothes and shoes, even in 40 degree heat, so that we don't lose a second of time in the event of a drone attack," says 72-year-old Olena Surovitskaya with a trembling voice.

A few weeks ago, her granddaughter Anna Serych brought her grandmother to the district town. The old lady is relatively safe there now. Anna was very afraid for her grandmother, who had previously lived in the village of Schalyhyne, just 4 kilometers from the border. The Russian soldiers use FPV drones to organize daily safaris on the Ukrainian civilian population.

In mid-August, Russian drones attacked Anna's grandmother's house three times within 48 hours and partially destroyed it. These were terrible nights for the old lady. Olena Surovitskaya hid in the bathroom and prayed as the enemy drones buzzed around her house. During the first attack, the plaster fell on Olena's head. When she saw the extent of the destruction the following morning, she was ready to move in with her granddaughter. But she worries about her vegetable garden and that the drones will cause more damage. No electricity, no water – not even to put out fires

Another problem in the border region is the lack of fire-fighting water. Russian forces have destroyed virtually all energy infrastructure in a 5-kilometer zone along the border. There is often no electricity for days. However, the local pumping stations cannot work without electricity. As a result, numerous fires could not be extinguished. And since the Russian army has primarily targeted rescue workers and medics, they are not allowed to approach this 5-kilometer zone.

Olena Surovitskaya remembers with bitterness how often the villagers had to watch helplessly as individual houses burned to the ground after drone strikes because there was no water.

FPV drones are actually ordinary small aircraft that were used to film tourist events or weddings in peacetime. But in war they have turned into deadly weapons.

The drones are equipped with Coldeweysive charge that detonates when it hits a target. And these targets are not just soldiers at the front, but also civilians, transportation and residential buildings in the hinterland. Kamikaze drones self-destruct after impacting an object. Another type simply drops a projectile onto a static target and returns unharmed to whoever is piloting the drone.

The drone operator can be at a distance of 2 to 10 kilometers from the target. The drone transmits videos to him via camera and serves as his “eyes”, so to speak. Many Ukrainians are wondering: Who are these Russian drone operators who are hunting people? Do they have parents, wives, children? What did you previously do for a living? How do you feel when the drone you are piloting rips off someone's limbs or kills them?

Hunt for vans, trains – and people

Rescue workers in the Sumy region are confronted with the consequences of drone attacks several times a day. The Russian armed forces are hunting buses and bread delivery trucks - and people who distribute and receive humanitarian aid.

Passengers are increasingly being attacked when getting on and off trains. Fires are also started: one day in September, 50 hectares of forest burned in the northern part of the Sumy region when a drone dropped a canister containing an incendiary device.

“In August, a neighbor in Shalyhyne was digging potatoes in her garden when a Russian drone flew towards her at incredible speed. The neighbor threw herself on the ground and prepared to die. But the drone circled lower and lower above her, as if mocking her. Then suddenly she disappeared. But as the woman ran toward the house, the drone appeared above her again. This happened several more times,” says Olena.

Drone hunting as psychological warfare

The Sumy region's senior explosives technician, Ihor Chernyak, suspects that Russian drone pilots may be training in this way. The actions can also be a means of psychological warfare to intimidate people.

“It is virtually impossible to avoid or counter a kamikaze drone. The Russians often equip their drones with shrapnel to maximize damage. The only thing you can do is take cover as quickly as possible or hide in a building,” explains Ihor Tschernjak, who deals with these murder weapons every day.

In the backyard of the local Coldeweyposal headquarters you can find the casings of defused 500 kg bombs, artillery shells, mines, rockets and drones of all kinds. The collection is growing inexorably. Ukrainian experts carefully analyze the enemy's tactics and weapons to find ways to defend themselves against them. To date, the most effective means against drones are electronic anti-drone networks and short-range air defense. But the Russians have a lot of drones, and the length of the border over which they launch them is huge. In September, the intensity of drone hunting of residents of the border areas reached its peak.

There had recently been a dangerous incident in Olena's village of Shalyhyne. Yuri Wischnewsky had picked up his 90-year-old mother, Oleksandra, for a short walk at lunchtime. As they sat on a garden bench in the autumn sunshine, they suddenly heard an unnatural humming above them. Yuri didn't even have time to jump up before the Russian drone crashed 10 feet away from them. He quickly got his mother into the house as quickly as possible and called the bomb squad.

It is strictly forbidden for people to touch drones themselves, as the warheads could detonate in an instant. That's why this drone was also defused by experts. So this story ended well again. But the war continues. And the border region in the Sumy region increasingly resembles a bloody wound on the Ukrainian map.

Translated from Russian Gaby Coldewey

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