当人生已经跌到谷底的时候，刘裕是如何绝处逢生的?

接受最不堪的现实，戒掉恶习。不以物喜，不以己悲，不自艾自怜。

隐忍与克制，谋定而后动。忍辱负重，在低谷中不自暴自弃。

在动荡中捕捉机遇，在机会来临时不吝压上所有筹码。敢于下场搏命，悍不畏死。

功成后不忘初心，依然严于律己，保持清醒。

如果你现在已经一无所有，那為什麼還要擔心失去呢?

何不像刘裕一样重振旗鼓，放手一搏?

即使失敗又能怎麼樣呢? 反正你也没有什么可失去的了。

人生一世，草木一春， 不管怎麼樣， 所有人都會死， 為什麼要提前在死前认命呢?

意志力实际上是可消耗精神产品: 意志坚强的人如果总是纵容自己，便会迅速意志薄弱; 意志薄弱的人如果坚定信念，厚积薄发，也会变得逐渐意志坚定。

意志力实际是一把双刃剑，过于迷信意志力的唯意志论导致走火入魔，从而走向彻底的灭亡; 短暂的连续的成功有时候并不是意志的胜利，而是疯狂的开始。在极度的困境中，意志力在某种程度上可以是一剂强心针，但其并非可持续。

缺乏意志力，会导致萎靡不振，难以振作。人在屡战屡败后会产生巨大的失望，从而以对成瘾性物质或精神产品的严重依赖来转移注意力以求摆脱暂时的压力，焦虑与未来不可知的恐惧。

意志力的可消耗性，使人必须懂得，对意志的合理使用才会达到应有的效果，过度迷信唯意志论会产生对意志力无所不能的幻觉，在意志力消耗殆尽后，对意志力的缺乏又会导致意志消沉，逐渐变得颓废不堪，产生药物或精神的某种寄托及依赖。

意志力的强大与薄弱都具有相对性，并非一成不变，时刻磨砺意志并维持一种理性的平衡是维持稳定性的重要条件。

Title: Trading in the Zone Date: 2026-09-14 Draft: False Tags: – journals – trading – option

道格拉斯的交易心理分析的五个事实：

​任何事情都可能发生： 市场由无数人的非理性情绪组成，你永远不可能完全掌控市场。哪怕技术形态再完美，下一秒依然可能突然出现极端反转。

​赚钱不需要知道下一步会怎样： 职业交易员从不“预测”接下来的 5 分钟是涨是跌，他们只在有优势的信号出现时扣动扳机。

​定义优势的信号，随机分布输赢： 即使你的策略胜率高达 70%，你也绝对不知道接下来的 10 笔交易里，哪 3 笔会亏损。这就是为什么你绝对不能全仓梭哈——因为你可能碰巧遇到那 3 笔随机的亏损。

​优势只是概率较高，不代表确定： 进场只是因为向一个方向走的概率和赔率（EV）更好，而不是它“一定”会那样走。

​市场的每一刻都是独一无二的： 昨天同样的形态暴跌了，不代表今天同样的形态也会暴跌。不要用上一笔交易的失败阴影，来干扰你当下这一笔客观的判断。 ​

用“概率思维”替代“预测思维”

​散户（预测思维）： 总想证明自己是“对的”。一旦行情没有按自己的预测走，自尊心受挫，大脑就会开启防御机制，开始死扛亏损；一旦蒙对了，又急于兑现来证明自己的聪明，导致盈利拿不住。 ​交易员（概率思维）： 接受每一笔交易都有可能是错的。在概率思维下，止损亏钱不再是“我错了”的耻辱，而是做生意的“正常经营成本”。就像赌场从不怕某一个赌客赢钱一样，只要概率和期望值在你这边，大数定律最终会让你赚钱。

对亏损的恐惧，造成的伤害远远大于亏损本身。

道格拉斯指出，恐惧会让你在交易中彻底变形：

​不敢开仓： 恐惧让你错过最佳的破位进场点，等行情走出来了才去追高。 ​盈利拿不住： 恐惧利润回撤，让你在刚赚一点点钱时就急于平仓，寻求“落袋为安”的心理舒适区。 ​亏损死扛： 恐惧面对真金白银变少的现实，导致你拒绝执行止损，硬生生把小亏拖成大亏。 ​

一致性的力量

为什么今天折腾了半天，方向看对了却没赚到钱？因为丧失了执行的一致性。在亏损时用的是“等等看”的鸵鸟策略，在盈利时用的是“赶紧跑”的恐慌策略。道格拉斯强调：执行的一致性，远胜过交易系统本身的质量。

什么是真正的 Trading in the Zone？

把风险管理做好（比如改用迷你标普 XSP，单笔只冒 100 美金的险）之后，对每一笔交易的结果完全不再抱有任何情绪执念。不期待暴富，也不害怕亏损。只是平静地看着价格的跳动，像个没有感情的机器人一样，客观地阅读盘口流动性，机械地执行进出场规则。 ​ 阻碍赚钱的从来不是分析图表的能力，而是潜意识里对不确定性的恐惧。

title: Safe Passage Date: 2026-09-15 draft: false Tags: – “Books” – digest

Safe Passage: The Transition from British to American Hegemony by Dr. Kori Schake

History records only one peaceful transition of hegemonic power: the passage from British to American dominance of the international order. What made that transition uniquely cooperative and nonviolent? Does it offer lessons to guide policy as the United States faces its own challengers to the order it has enforced since the 1940s? To answer these questions, Kori Schake explores nine points of crisis or tension between Britain and the United States, from the Monroe Doctrine in 1823 to the establishment of the unequal “special relationship” during World War II.

Over this period, Safe Passage shows, the United States gradually changed the rules that Britain had established at its imperial height. It was able to do so peacefully because, during the crucial years, Britain and the United States came to look alike to each other and different from other nations. Britain followed America’s lead in becoming more democratic, while the United States, because of its conquest of the American West, developed an imperial cast of mind. Until the end of World War II, both countries paid more attention to their cumulative power relative to other states in the order than to their individual power relative to each other.

The factors that made the Anglo-American transition peaceful, notably the convergence in their domestic ideologies, are unlikely to apply in future transitions, Schake concludes. We are much more likely to see high-stake standoffs among competing powers attempting to shape the international order to reflect the starkly different ideologies that prevail at home.

A cuatro profesores de literatura, Pelletier, Morini, Espinoza y Norton, los une su fascinación por la obra de Beno von Archimboldi, un enigmático escritor alemán cuyo prestigio crece en todo el mundo. La complicidad se vuelve vodevil intelectual y desemboca en un peregrinaje a Santa Teresa (trasunto de Ciudad Juárez), donde hay quien dice que Archimboldi ha sido visto. Ya allí, Pelletier y Espinoza se enteran de que la ciudad es desde años atrás escenario de una larga cadena de crímenes: en los vertederos aparecen cadáveres de mujeres con señales de haber sido violadas y torturadas. Es el primer asomo de la novela a sus procelosos caudales, repletos de personajes memorables cuyas historias, a caballo entre la risa y el horror, abarcan dos continentes e incluyen un vertiginoso travelling por la historia europea del siglo XX. 2666 confirma el veredicto de Susan Sontag: “el más influyente y admirado novelista en lengua española de su generación. Su muerte, a los cincuenta años, es una gran pérdida para la literatura”.

title: What We Talk About When We Talk About Love date: 2026-09-06 draft: false Tags: – “Books” – digest

The most celebrated story collection from “one of the true American masters” (The New York Review of Books)—a haunting meditation on love, loss, and companionship, and finding one’s way through the dark that includes the iconic and much-referenced title story featured in the Academy Award-winning film Birdman.

“Raymond Carver's America is ... clouded by pain and the loss of dreams, but it is not as fragile as it looks. It is a place of survivors and a place of stories.... [Carver] has done what many of the most gifted writers fail to do: He has invented a country of his own, like no other except that very world, as Wordsworth said, which is the world to all of us.” —The New York Times Book Review

title: The Franklin Cover-Up Date: 2026-09-06 draft: false Tags: – “Books” – digest

The shut-down of Omaha, Nebraska's Franklin Community Federal Credit Union, raided by federal agencies in November 1988, sent shock waves all the way to Washington, D.C. $40 million was missing. The credit union's manager: Republican Party activist Lawrence E. “Larry” King, Jr., behind whose rise to fame and riches stood powerful figures in Nebraska politics and business, and in the nation's capital.

In the face of opposition from local and state law enforcement, from the FBI, and from the powerful Omaha World-Herald newspaper, a special Franklin committee of the Nebraska Legislature launched its own probe. What looked like a financial swindle, soon exploded into a hideous tale of drugs, Iran-Contra money-laundering, a nationwide child abuse ring, and ritual murder.

Nineteen months later, the legislative committee's chief investigator died – suddenly, and violently, like more than a dozen other people linked to the Franklin case.

Author John DeCamp knows the Franklin scandal from the inside. In 1990, his “DeCamp memo” first publicly named the alleged high-ranking abusers. Today, he is attorney for two of the abuse victims.

Using documentation never before made public, DeCamp lays bare not only the crimes, but the cover-up – a textbook case of how dangerous the corruption of institutions of government, and the press, can be. In its sweep and in what it portends for the nation, the Franklin cover-up followed the ugly precedent of the Warren Commission.

Title: Rise and Kill First Date: 2026-09-06 Draft: fase Tags: – “Books” – digest

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER The first definitive history of Israel’s targeted killing programs, which have shaped the Israeli nation, the Middle East, and the larger world—from the man hailed by David Remnick as “arguably [Israel’s] best investigative reporter.”

“An exceptional work, a humane book about an incendiary subject . . . full of shocking moments, surprising disturbances in a narrative full of fateful twists and unintended consequences.”—The New York Times

WINNER OF THE NATIONAL JEWISH BOOK AWARD IN HISTORY ONE OF THE TEN BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR: Jennifer Szalai, The New York Times A BEST BOOK OF THE YEAR: The Economist, The New York Times Book Review, BBC History Magazine, Mother Jones

The Talmud says: “If someone comes to kill you, rise up and kill him first.” This instinct to take every measure, even the most aggressive, to defend the Jewish people is hardwired into Israel’s DNA. From the very beginning of its statehood in 1948, protecting the nation from harm has been the responsibility of its intelligence community and armed services, and there is one weapon in their vast arsenal that they have relied upon to thwart the most serious threats: Targeted assassinations have been used countless times, on enemies large and small, sometimes in response to attacks against the Israeli people and sometimes preemptively.

In this page-turning, eye-opening book, journalist and military analyst Ronen Bergman—praised by David Remnick as “arguably [Israel’s] best investigative reporter”—offers a riveting inside account of the targeted killing programs: their successes, their failures, and the moral and political price exacted on the men and women who approved and carried out the missions.

Bergman has gained the exceedingly rare cooperation of many current and former members of the Israeli government, including Prime Ministers Shimon Peres, Ehud Barak, Ariel Sharon, and Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as high-level figures in the country’s military and intelligence services: the IDF (Israel Defense Forces), the Mossad (the world’s most feared intelligence agency), Caesarea (a “Mossad within the Mossad” that carries out attacks on the highest-value targets), and the Shin Bet (an internal security service that implemented the largest targeted assassination campaign ever, in order to stop what had once appeared to be unstoppable: suicide terrorism).

Including never-before-reported, behind-the-curtain accounts of key operations, and based on hundreds of on-the-record interviews and thousands of files to which Bergman has gotten exclusive access over his decades of reporting, Rise and Kill First brings us deep into the heart of Israel’s most secret activities. Bergman traces, from statehood to the present, the gripping events and thorny ethical questions underlying Israel’s targeted killing campaign, which has shaped the Israeli nation, the Middle East, and the larger world.

title: All the Light We Cannot See date: 2026-09-07 draft: false Tags: – “Books” – digest

Marie-Laure lives in Paris near the Museum of Natural History, where her father works. When she is twelve, the Nazis occupy Paris and father and daughter flee to the walled citadel of Saint-Malo, where Marie-Laure's reclusive great uncle lives in a tall house by the sea. With them they carry what might be the museum's most valuable and dangerous jewel.

In a mining town in Germany, Werner Pfennig, an orphan, grows up with his younger sister, enchanted by a crude radio they find that brings them news and stories from places they have never seen or imagined. Werner becomes an expert at building and fixing these crucial new instruments and is enlisted to use his talent to track down the resistance. Deftly interweaving the lives of Marie-Laure and Werner, Doerr illuminates the ways, against all odds, people try to be good to one another.

From the highly acclaimed, multiple award-winning Anthony Doerr, the stunningly beautiful instant New York Times bestseller about a blind French girl and a German boy whose paths collide in occupied France as both try to survive the devastation of World War II.

Title: The Age of Surveillance Capitalism Date: 2026-09-21 Draft: false Tags: – books – book reviews – Goodreads

The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight for a Human Future at the New Frontier of Power by Shoshana Zuboff The challenges to humanity posed by the digital future, the first detailed examination of the unprecedented form of power called “surveillance capitalism,” and the quest by powerful corporations to predict and control our behavior. The heady optimism of the Internet's early days has turned dark. Surveillance capitalism has deepened inequality, sown societal chaos, and undermined democracy. The fight for a human future has never been more urgent. Shoshana Zuboff argues that we still have the power to decide what kind of world we want to live in: Will we allow surveillance capitalism to wrap us in its iron cage as it enriches the few and subjugates the many? Or will we demand the rights and laws that place this rogue power under the democratic rule of law? Only democracy can ensure that the vast new capabilities of the digital era are harnessed to the advancement of humanity. The Age of Surveillance Capitalism is a deeply original, exquisitely reasoned, and spell binding examination of our emerging information civilization and the life and death choices we face.