World Population Analysis
What on Earth is happening? That’s the question that I will answer today as I review the population dynamics of countries around the globe. I will review the Population Reference Bureau’s 2023 and 2024 World Population Data Sheets because they reveal surprising patterns of economic well-being and population between various countries. The Population Reference Bureau (PRB) is a credible organization that has gathered global demographic information for nearly one-hundred years. You should consider the similarities and differences of economic well-being and population between countries around the world.
Population growth differs significantly between More Developed and Less Developed countries (PRB, 2023). One difference is the Rate of Natural Increase. The Rate of Natural Increase gets larger with less development. More specifically, Less Developed countries have double the births than Developed Countries (i.e., 18 out of 1,000 compared to 9 out of 1,000), and the Least Developed countries have nearly quadruple the births than Developed Countries (i.e., 32 out of 1,000 compared to 9 out of 1,000). Notably, Developed Countries have more deaths than births, which makes their Rate of Natural Increase in the negative (i.e., RNI -0.2). A negative rate indicates a declining or shrinking population. Population growth seems to correlate directly with the degree of development such that the least development strongly correlates with population growth.
One fact is surprising. The population in the global south is growing. The Rate of Natural Increase for Least Developed countries is 2.4 (PRB, 2024). This number is in the positive which means the population is increasing. Due to the fact that most births are in Least Developed countries, any given person is most likely to be born in a less developed country than a most developed country. Also, migration is coming from the Global South to Global North, so a child who is born in the Global South will likely seek to move to the Global North. In other words, the average person will be born in a place they will find unsatisfactory and will want to move elsewhere. The hypothetical person will find themselves born in poor families due to no fault of their own. This fact is surprisingly pessimistic and relatable.
Significant differences between Europe and Africa are their population growth and economic well-being. For context, the Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) measures population growth, and Gross National Income (GNI) per capita at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) measures economic well-being. The rates for each are different in Africa and Europe. Africa’s RNI is 2.3, and Europe’s RNI is -0.3 (PRB, 2024). The difference in RNI indicates that Africa’s native population is growing whereas Europe’s native population is shrinking. The GNI per capita at PPP in Europe is 54,028; in Africa, it’s 6,394. This means that the income of an average European has the purchasing power 8.4 times greater than the income of an average African. To put simply, Africa is a global leader in starting families and child-rearing, and Europe is a global leader in high income and strong currency. Indeed, there is a disparity of population growth and economic well-being between Africa and Europe.
Consequences exist for the disparity of population growth and economic well-being between Africa and Europe. For Europe’s declining population, it logically follows that less people means less workers. Indeed, Charles Kenny and George Yang at the Center for Global Development wrote, “There will be 95 million fewer working-age people in Europe in 2050 than in 2015, under business as usual” (Kenny & Yang, 2021). Kenny writes that African-migrants could fill in the gap of workers, which will be a mutual benefit due to Africa’s growing working class and Europe’s increasing labor scarcity. However, Kenny also mentions that automation, women, elderly, or outsourced workers could fill in the gap as well. In short, the current trends have global consequences for Europeans and Africans.
Researcher Panu Poutvaara at Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich found an interesting connection between globalization and population dynamics. She writes, “International migration flows largely reflect demographic patterns and economic opportunities. Migration flows increase in expected income and other pull factors in potential destinations, and in push factors in the origin, like high unemployment, low wages, and high population growth.” Poutvaara makes the observation that migration has a push and pull. This is a profound observation because it’s very useful for analyzing local migration in the United States. One can predict that areas in the US that have low wages, high unemployment, and high population growth are likely to “push” residents out. On the flip side, areas with high wages and older population can expect to “pull” newcomers in.
This is useful information in many areas such as deciding where to buy a home. An unwise investment may be to buy a home in an area with high unemployment, low wages, and high birth rate due to the declining economy and large distance from available jobs. According to migration-flow logic, the best place to live and work in Oregon would likely be Clackamas county for its “sweet spot” position of being the high wage (i.e., 3rd highest wage rate in Oregon), slightly aged population, and low unemployment (Williams, 2018)(BLS, 2025)(OED, 2025). To note, Tillamook County is another second candidate for its low unemployment rate and much older population, despite their reduced wages compared to Clackamas. The worst place to live and work in terms of migration flow would be Umatilla County for its young population (i.e., 2nd youngest county in Oregon), elevated unemployment rate (i.e., 5.1% to 5.9%), and diminished earnings (i.e., $1,150 to $1,220 per week). Malheur County is the 4th youngest county and earns even less than Umatilla and suffers from high unemployment rates. To reiterate, migration flow is interestingly connected to globalization and population dynamics.
Economic well-being and population demographics are strongly correlated. The population and economies of countries have a global impact, such as African-migration to Europe. Similarly, economies and populations have a regional impact, such as the population and economy of Clackamas county (i.e., older, higher-income, employed) compared to Umatilla county (i.e., younger, lower-income, unemployed). The patterns of economic well-being and population between countries around the world is incredibly important for understanding global and local politics.
Works Cited
Bureau of Labor Statistics, County Employment and Wages in Oregon — Fourth Quarter 2025, Chart 3. Average weekly wages by county in Oregon, fourth quarter 2025, retrieved from https://www.bls.gov/regions/west/news-release/2026/countyemploymentandwages_oregon_20260609.htm
Kenny, Charles and George Yang. “Can Africa Help Europe Avoid Its Looming Aging Crisis?” (2021). https://www.cgdev.org/publication/can-africa-help-europe-avoid-looming-aging-crisis
Oregon Employment Department, September 2025 Employment and Unemployment in Oregon’s Counties, retrieved from https://www.oregon.gov/employ/NewsAndMedia/Documents/2025-12-16-Press-Release-Labor-Force-and-Unemployment-by-Area.pdf
The Population Reference Bureau. 2023 World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau, Washington, D.C., 2023 https://www.prb.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/2023-World-Population-Data-Sheet-Booklet.pdf T he Population Reference Bureau. 2024 World Population Data Sheet. Population Reference Bureau, Washington, D.C., 2024 https://2024-wpds.prb.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-World-Population-Data-Sheet-Booklet-1.pdf
Poutvaara, Panu, Population Aging and Migration. IZA Discussion Paper No. 14389, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3855953
Williams, Kale, Which Oregon counties have the youngest, oldest residents?, The Oregonian, Feb. 28, 2018, 12:08 p.m. Retrieved from https://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/2018/02/which_oregon_counties_have_the.html